The Revolution Will Be Co-Opted
There is the possibility that much of the crypto space becomes just a niche activity for the majority. A possibility, and for some areas of what is now growing in web3 such as finance, NFT's and gaming, a probability. These activities will not receive mass adoption, except in their most diluted, abstracted forms.
Much of web3 right now requires work. Not just the work necessitated by the beta nature of the tech. Not just the work because all is new and everyone is early. Managing your own finances requires an enormous amount of work, and that is why today it is mostly either delegated or ignored. No doubt tech will be developed that utilize algorithmic management and automated investing, and this essentially becomes a managed fund, a delegation of decision making and often responsibility. Very few people will give the same level of attention to their portfolio as have done the majority of crypto investors in the past year. And for many of those that have been involved in the trading frenzy, their effort and attention is not sustainable. For the majority of the global population, finance will become mostly automated, and a very small minority will be involved in developing and controlling the mechanisms by which the majority save and invest.
NFT's will turn into the art market for the most part. No doubt as layer 2's are developed and the cost of minting and purchasing falls, NFT's will once again become something anyone can get involved in. However, as it stands today, collecting truly rare and valuable pieces is something only the lucky few and the heavily involved are able to do. Money dominates the art market, whether it is digital art or physical art. NFT's as art will be like all art, extremely exclusionary. There will be "basic" NFT's, much like there are prints and limited edition box sets, however the value of these will be diluted for a mass audience. Digital versions of going to a concert and buying a mass produced "limited edition" will abound.
I would like to see the ability of small and medium sized creators to make a living increase with the use of NFT's. I am thinking of some small band able to earn a living from their music through the sale of NFT's. This long tail is enormously long in the creator economy and would allow new cultural expression to seep through the cracks now appearing in the mainstream market. I am also amazed at the strength of the marketing machine, of the power marketing and control of the messaging systems have on the culture. I grew up in the 80's and 90's where this seemed much less the case. Large and well established players have shown an ability to adapt and to co-opt any challengers to their dominance, any outsider, any alternative narrative. Netflix, Apple, Google, Spotify and so on have enormous advantages and I question the appetite of the majority for the work needed to find new art and develop their own tastes.
Crypto gaming is young. There is promising tech coming through, and promising possibilities for developing independent games. I think what I have said above applies here as well.
Web3 has been defined in these early days by the need for the individual to do the work in order to participate. Each individual decides their own level of involvement. It has been said that passivity defines the age we live in - and even more harshly, cowardice. Web3 is inherently risky, it is an act of exploration and discovery and I question peoples appetite for this. There are many reasons why Facebook, Google, twitter and Microsoft remain enormously successful, even monopolistic, despite their many abuses and betrayals. People want ease, they want simplicity, they want convenience.
There is no doubt that having your bank in your browser makes banking much more easy and convenient. What I question is whether true web3, where the user retains enormous independence, where "not your keys, not your cypto" stands as a basic principle, can withstand the lure of co-dependency that centralized providers offer. For the majority, the choice between doing it yourself and accepting the risk and responsibility, or having someone else do it for you and giving up responsibility and independence is an easy one. It is a choice we all made in droves on web2.
Decentralization and extreme independence must have a clear utility that a centralized and codependent service cannot offer in order for their to be a real revolution brought about by web3. Privacy doesn't seem to be that utility. Financial reward will wane with greater adoption by the public and by centralized players.
What does web3 have that Facebook users want that Meta can't give them?
Photo by DAVID NIETO on Unsplash